- 2025 saw significant regulatory uncertainty, as erratic U.S.-Mexico tariff announcements and enforcement disrupted operations, prompting importers to expedite or pause shipments and enhancing reliance on air freight for time-sensitive goods.
- Mexico’s export growth is primarily driven by close-in sourcing rather than large-scale factory relocations, while the upcoming 2026 USMCA revision and border unpredictability are pushing shippers to diversify routes and rely more on freight forwarders and customs brokers.
- Policy fluctuations are now a constant factor in air freight, reinforcing the need for flexibility, as operators use air freight to maintain flexibility amid changing tariffs, enforcement practices, and transatlantic regulatory variation.
If there’s one word that sets the mood during three policy-laden sessions at Air Cargo Americas, it has to be uncertainty. Executives described 2025 as the most volatile regulatory year in recent memory, a year in which tariff proposals, enforcement priorities and political messaging shifted quickly enough to distort planning cycles and force shippers into reactive mode.
What happened in Miami was the feeling that tariff instability was no longer a total backdrop. It is now a direct operational variable, influencing booking rhythms, conditional decisions, and shipper behavior on both sides of the U.S. border.
Volatility in tariffs becomes a cause of disruption to the supply chain
Participants were clear that the challenge facing 2025 is not the level of tariffs, but the irregular process behind them. Rules changed without warning, implementation dates were delayed, and rumors stirred the markets.
Luis Hernández, executive vice president of Intermodal Grupo Mexico Transportes, summed up the problem best: “Tariffs are announced today, they may be implemented tomorrow, or they may not be implemented.”
The surprise policy prompted importers to speed up shipments to overcome potential increases, then halted when Washington flagged the delay. These irregularities created pressure on U.S. gateways, with air freight frequently acting as a corrective method when time was of the essence.
Even proposals that were never put forward, such as the White House’s threat to impose a 50% tariff on Chinese imports, were destabilizing enough to change sequestration patterns.
Nearshoring vs. Near Sourcing: Determining True Trend
Committee members also warned against mixing headlines related to the near-term sector with fundamental data. While Mexico continues to gain strength as a supplier to the United States, the expected wave of foreign plant relocations has not materialized.
Diego Rodriguez of Americas Market Intelligence explained the fact: “90% of FDI in Mexico is just reinvestment from companies already in Mexico.”
Mexico’s export growth therefore depends on proximity to sources, with Mexican producers supplying more to American buyers, rather than by large-scale relocation from Asia. This means that the global tariff environment, especially US-China measures, continues to influence demand patterns even as North American integration deepens.
USMCA renewal adds another layer of risk
The upcoming 2026 USMCA revision has dominated much of the policy discussion. Most speakers believe renewal is the most likely outcome, but politically charged negotiations are expected.
Rodriguez also predicted that “Mexico will have to come to the table and make concessions… The USMCA will be renewed next year,” citing energy issues and bias toward China as flashpoints.
The uncertainty surrounding the review is already prompting shippers to diversify their routes and seek customs advisory support, behavior that airlines say is becoming more widespread.
Unpredictability at the border boosts air freight
For many operators, the most troubling factor in 2025 was inconsistent enforcement at U.S.-Mexico border crossings, rather than the tariff levels themselves. Representatives of the U.S.-Mexican Chamber of Commerce said unclear guidance routinely leaves merchandise stuck in a procedural limbo.
These disruptions resulted in time-sensitive loads being repeatedly redirected to the air networks. Many carriers said the surge in northbound demand reflects shippers trying to bypass unpredictable ground queues as much as avoid tariff timing.
Strategic gains
Another clear theme was the increasing importance of freight forwarders and customs brokers. As tariff rules rapidly shift and enforcement procedures tighten, shippers increasingly rely on brokers to interpret policies, verify documents, and develop contingency plans.
Rodriguez described the sharp change in customer behavior: “We’re seeing shippers coming to us and asking: How can we overcome this? What are our alternatives?”
This dynamic has strengthened the position of freight forwarders along the US-Mexico corridor and encouraged larger BCOs to centralize compliance oversight.
Friction in transatlantic trade
Policy fluctuations were not limited to North America this year. Speakers warned that competing emissions rules, support frameworks and digital trade agendas could add further uncertainty in the coming year. Although not as volatile as the US-Mexico environment, transatlantic flows are shaped by regulatory divergence that may impact capacity planning and compliance costs.
Many speakers claimed that political risk had become a permanent operating condition, rather than a periodic disruption.
The unpredictability of politics: the new normal
The consensus from Air Cargo Americas was clear: more volatility is on the horizon. As US-China tariffs continue to escalate, USMCA negotiations loom, and an election year approaches, shippers are expanding their supplier bases, diversifying markets, and using air freight to make their networks more resilient.
For air cargo operators, the lesson from 2025 is clear: speed is now the industry’s defining competitive advantage. In a year where political signals moved markets more quickly than fuel prices, the ability to respond, rather than just plan, has become a key differentiator.
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