- Global air freight demand rose 5% year-on-year in November 2025, continuing a stronger-than-expected peak season trend. This followed gains of 3% and 4% in September and October, putting the industry on track for 4% annual growth. However, global spot prices fell 5 percent year-on-year to US$2.73 per kilogram, as carriers sought to gain market share at the expense of pricing power.
- While Northeast Asian routes have shown resilience due to shifts in strategic capabilities, Southeast Asian routes have seen double-digit rate declines linked to regulatory pressures and oversupply. Europe and North America also recorded their first annual rate decline of 8 percent.
Christmas came early for global air freight volumes in November, with another 5 per cent year-on-year increase in demand adding to the seasonal cheer. However, the e-commerce “growth engine” in the sector over the past two years is slowing down, according to the latest analysis from Xeneta.
Despite stable expectations heading into the final months of 2025, demand has surprisingly picked up, with growth of 3% in September and 4% in October. November’s performance extended this trend, putting the market on track to close 2025 with 4 percent annual growth — although concerns remain about what lies ahead in 2026.
Capacity growth in November largely kept pace with demand. However, the increase in supply over the year still lags behind the increase in demand. Despite this, spot interest rates continued to decline. November saw a 5% year-on-year decline in global air freight spot rates, with the price reaching US$2.73 per kilogram, worse than the 3% decline recorded in October.
This suggests that airlines are prioritizing market share at the expense of price discipline, leading to diminished returns in an already competitive market. On a monthly basis, spot interest rates rose 6% in November, less than the 9% jump seen in the same period in 2024.
All major corridors are recording lower spot rates year on year
In November, all major trade lanes recorded a decline in air freight rates compared to the previous year. The route between Europe and North America showed the largest decline at 8%, exceeding the global average. While monthly rates for this route jumped by 27 percent, they are still well below the 42 percent increase recorded during the peak of e-commerce last year.
In Northeast Asia, the picture was more stable. Cargo capacity was efficiently shifted from trans-Pacific routes to routes between Asia and Europe, facilitating air freight revenues. Spot rates in North America, Europe and Northeast Asia recorded only single-digit declines year-on-year, while the Black Friday retail season posted double-digit gains month-on-month.
Conversely, Southeast Asian routes to both Europe and North America suffered double-digit rate declines, likely due to additional capacity deployments chasing ~50% demand growth, coupled with weak e-commerce flows impacted by regulatory changes in Northeast Asia.
The commercial corridors of Al Wasl remained calm, with modest changes in prices and the available capacity remaining sufficient.
Market resilience in November was supported by traditional shippers’ commitment to annual freight cycles and better clarity around US trade tariffs, according to Niall van de Woo, chief air cargo officer at Xeneta. While the long-term rollout of an e-commerce data center in the EU will not be completed until 2028, temporary solutions proposed for 2026 – including a flat handling fee of €2 – are not expected to significantly dampen demand for air freight.
What could have a greater impact are measures that slow down the supply chain or impose significant additional costs, Van de Woo noted.
Looking ahead, Van de Woo expects low-single-digit growth for air freight in 2026. He warned that supply is likely to grow faster than demand, putting further downward pressure on prices.
“We expect supply to grow more than demand in 2026, and that will have an impact on prices. I also don’t think that low single-digit demand growth will satisfy the appetite and ambition of freight forwarders, especially listed companies that need to grow much faster in the market. So, the only way to do that is to grab market share, which would put further downward pressure on rates in favor of freight forwarders.”
He added that shippers are increasingly seeking Xeneta’s insights to understand freight forwarder rates, while airlines are also coming to validate what they are being told by brokers. He says the consensus is that 2 to 3 percent demand growth in 2026 would be a realistic outcome.
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