Global air cargo sizes +5 per cent jumped yearly in July, as more trucks chose to speed flying conditions to help circumvent US definitions, according to the latest market analysis by XENETA.
However, the market feeling is still defeated as tariff talks in Washington remain in a state of flow, with a new deadline now set for August 7 for a wide range of commercial partners. The lack of clarity continues to cast a shadow on global trade flows, especially in the air conditions sector.
Unlike the usual seasonal calm, July witnessed a remarkable rush in global demand for air freight after a modest +1 percent in June. It seems that this unexpected support, which is seasonal patterns, is partially driven by the front loading related to the tariff, the transformation of the situation, and the constant uncertainty, which causes companies to accelerate the shipments.
With the increase in the capacity of the goods in July by less than the level of +3 percent on an annual basis, the volume of +5 percent helped raise the dynamic pregnancy factor, which now has returned to compared levels with a year before (58 %) and regaining a 2 -percent decrease in one month before. The dynamic loading factor is XENETA measurement to use the capacity based on the size and weight of the shipping that is transferred to the available capacity.
“As we said earlier this year, Air Cargo abandons the chaos caused by the customs tariff. While growth in July will be a pleasant surprise for many, this growth is not the result of increasing trade. It is a sign of creative methods that companies are trying to get rid of in high definition costs.”
Speed is vital to circumventing the definitions
“What we currently see is the transformation of the situation and it helps the short -term air conditions market in the short term.
He added: “Creative companies are increasing to try to avoid or reduce the impact of definitions. It is the” mouse “game between the American administration and companies.
The immediate prices for the third month
Despite the most important basics, global air spacecraft prices decreased for a third month in a row in July, as it decreased by 2 % on an annual basis to $ 2.55 per kilogram. However, the decrease rate decreased, thanks to a defect in the demand for demand. A modest +2 % increase over a month in July a glimmer of airlines was provided to airlines, although the mid -term track remains silent.
It is worth noting that the gap between seasonal rates (valid for more than one month) and topical rates (valid for up to one month) has expanded-from 5 cents less than the immediate rate in late May to more than 20 cents below by the end of July, indicating the mid-term confidence.
More complications waved on the horizon. The United States is preparing to end the minimum exemption for all countries by the end of August, a policy that can reshape small air trade. Since May 2, the exemption has already been removed for shipments from the mainland of China and Hong Kong, which combined is an estimated two -thirds of all parcels that enter the United States, according to customs and US border protection. This led to a 50 % decrease in China’s low -value and e -commerce exports to the United States in June, based on the latest Chinese customs statistics.
The broader decline will affect Canada, the United Kingdom and Mexico-Countries, which together constitute most of the remaining volume of the affected size. Possible disturbances of American postal services, governed by international treaties, can add another layer of complexity, where mutual measures of foreign postal authorities remain a distinctive possibility.
While the lack of details about the definitions is “creating a lot of headaches for people,” Van de Wow admitted, but, again, he pays the sizes of air charges. He said: “The defrauding the response is faster, expecting something else, and preparing to pay more for the evil transport because it is still better than paying a tariff much higher on the goods.”
Chaos in favor of air conditions
“When there is chaos and chaos in international trade, it takes advantage of the conditions of air weapons, as we have seen before. And at the present time, we have an unprecedented global scale,” said Van de Wow. “Yes, the customs tariff is only to and from the United States, but the lack of clarity affects many commercial passages as companies try to reduce their financial risks.”
He said that this continuous uncertainty is “one of the few things that may protect the request for air cargo in the coming months because anything has almost be completed with regard to the definitions. Companies see the headlines and their intentions, but not details and obligations. We must not forget that when the obligations take place, this will not be through the entities that you will need to achieve.”
Air conditions rates have decreased significantly across the Pacific Pacific in July. Instant rates from Southeast Asia to North America decreased by -16 % year on year to $ 4.87 per kilogram, with a reduction in the previous capacity restrictions. On the other hand, rates from Northeast Asia to North America remained relatively flat at $ 4.81 per kilogram, supported by strong demand from Taiwan. There, the instant prices increased +9 % on an annual basis to $ 6.85 per kilogram, and are nourished by an increased appetite of artificial intelligence and semi -conductors.
However, China narrated on the mainland a different story. The immediate prices of the United States decreased by -11 % to $ 4.26 per kilogram, weighing both minimal prohibitions, increased tariffs, and uncertainty in the market.
+90 percent of increased e -commerce volumes in China to Europe
On Asia-Europe roads, the immediate prices from North Asia to Europe were fixed at $ 4.16 per kilogram. However, this calm surface lies in reformulating the capacity: a marked transformation in the Pacific Ocean to Europe has helped to absorb an increase close to +90 % in the cross -border e -commerce sizes from China to Europe according to June data from China’s customs. This re -customization has yet to remain high rates. On the contrary, Southeast Asia to Europe was less quality, as category prices decreased by -22 percent on an annual basis to $ 3.02 per kilogram.
The Transatlantic market is the only main corridor that spreads a significant increase in prices in both directions. The instant prices rose to $ 1.91 per kilogram west and $ 1.15 per kilogram. A mixture of front loading activity and reducing the abdomen capacity of passenger trips has increased higher rates.
The “pig” will stop – but when?
VAN De Wouw added that this situation of this flow allows Air Shippers to respond faster and “this is what they play with.” “My best evaluation is that confusion encourages companies to use flying conditions more than they want, but air charging proves its value again.”
However, “The Pig Elimination” will stop-adding that all the positives that were created due to the growth of dual-number air shipping in 2024 “now seem to be a very long time.”
“There are still a lot of questions that have not been answered. How long will this uncertainty continue? How will trade volumes appear within a few months?
“Economists agree that this climate is not good for anyone, sooner or later, it must be presented, and the demand will fall. How long will it take before the reality kicks it is difficult to evaluate because this is the huge political dance.
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