The global air cargo industry faces a period of severe disturbance and uncertainty in 2025, which is largely driven by new definitions and volatile trade between the United States and China. These commercial barriers have led to the cavity of supply chains, the increasing costs, and forced companies through the ecosystem to empty flying to rethink roads, spread the fleet, and operational strategies.
“Everything is in a state of flowing with regard to the uncertainty surrounding the definitions, the rate of volatile tariffs, and the length that will remain or may remain in their place (if any),” says Joy Smith, Cassel Salbeter director. “Possible gaps and exemption make planning difficult for all participants, especially manufacturers, distributors and wholesaler.”
Smith notes that companies that depend on the via Atlantic or transient supply chains have been forced to reconsider everything from the inventory management to diversifying suppliers. He adds: “Goods and the delivery of the last tunnel” were also pressure.
The situation is more complicated by “great preference by manufacturers (especially Chinese) to obtain a product to American beaches before the expiration of” stop “, which makes modern data on the sizes of air charging and pricing” unreliable as a comprehensive direction. And slowness too. “
Volatility and rethinking the road
The definitions have struck the air charge of a certain strength, especially in e -commerce, where cost structures and demand patterns have turned significantly.
“It is expected that the elimination of the minimum value of $ 800 for Chinese goods, in addition to increasing customs tariffs of air charging, especially for low -value e -commerce shipments, which was a major component of Chinese/American traffic,” explains. This change already leads to reassessing supply chains, with “some e -commerce companies whose manufacturing/distribution point is likely to convert their/distribution point into other Asian countries, which may be less affected by definitions.”
Smith adds that these transformations have caused the allocation of airlines. “We have seen the re -customization of aircraft from the Chinese/American market to Europe and other regions.”
Smith highlights that the “Black Swan event” highlights its unexpected nature: “The transformation of politics is protectionism, which is a major blow to globalization and free trade that made the United States the largest country of GDP and wealthy on earth (although the huge trade deficit) specifically, the biggest harm is uncertainty, as it seems that there is no real policy or good goals.”
The consequences extend beyond trade sizes only: “The negative effects can include low demand for charging aircraft in general, slowing the demand for the expansion of charging aircraft fleets.” Increased costs and delay in obtaining aircraft spare parts increases the challenges, and “the charging aircraft has become more dominant in exchange for shipping the abdomen for commercial airlines, so the fluctuation in the shipping market plays a big role.”
Airlines adapt to network strategies
Definitions have caused a noticeable disorder in one of the most important goods in the world-China and the United States-to reconsider how fleets and planning networks spread.
“The traditional market for those with Jani will not be able to compensate for the decrease in e -commerce sizes with the suspension of” De Minimis “of $ 800, which was estimated at approximately 1.2 million tons, or more than 50 % of the goods shipped from China to the United States by air,” Smith. It refers to the dramatic transformation since 2018, when these charges make up only 5 %.
It is unlikely that “minimal exemptions” are unlikely, the major Chinese e -commerce companies such as Alibaba, Shein and TEMU “are increasingly looking to charge products in large quantities across the sea to the United States or other storage sites instead of making individual shipments directly by consumers.”
Smith notes the moves that are already taking place in the airline industry: “Many Asia and Pacific airlines said in the financial reports covering the period before the implementation, they will seek to transfer capabilities to other ways to deal with the volatile demand.” For example, Demirko, a shipping agent who focuses on Asia this month, said that many scheduled shipping services were canceled in the Chinese and United States Corridor, with some capacity to be directed to Mexico and Latin America. “
Nearly 70 of the Road Road Roads temporarily stopped, although some have been republished to other markets. “The new opportunities may be the expansion of the additional geographical markets and high air cargo rates. Instead, air freight operators may take proactive measures to alleviate the impact of definitions by transferring operations to alternative geographical markets,” Silver Silver sees.
This can “create new partnerships with countries that are not subject to higher definitions”, diversifying shipping methods and “increasing businesses for air freight companies”. “Companies may become more willing to pay as well as the fastest and most reliable charging/charging options,” Smith explains, adding that these costs will often be shared along the logistical chain and sometimes transferred to consumers.
Maintenance, compliance and long -term effects
The effects of the tariffs of customs tariffs deeply extend to maintenance, reform and reform operations (MRO), which face new challenges amid changing customs interpretations.
“It is too early to tell him, but it is sufficient to say that after -sales spare parts in MROS and after the sale they should benefit from customs tariff disorders,” Smith says. However, “contradictions in the application of customs rules led to problems and contradictions”, especially with regard to whether the imported parts should be serious to fly to qualify for treatment exempt from customs duties. “These political hot potatoes”, Smith notes, with possible inflationary effects throughout the supply chain.
The customs duties also dismantled exemptions from the 1980 agreement on civil aircraft trade – a teacher of a corner of the tariffs on aircraft and spare parts between the main spaces. “Ending these exemptions raises production costs for aviation manufacturers and increases purchasing costs for airlines, which may pay more against new aircraft and spare parts,” says Smith.
Smith is skeptical of hopes that the customs tariff re -manufacture to the United States: “It is very unlikely.” The aviation sector, which is still recovering from travel declines and commercial wars, is pressing customs tariff exemptions, for fear of disrupting contracts from trade exempt from the due fees that supported an annual annual surplus of $ 75 billion. Boeing, which relies heavily on exports and Airbus, with important American operations, is subject to increased component costs.
Achieving a balance between the increasing costs with competitive pressure
The US -based airlines are facing the challenge of absorbing the increasing import costs while maintaining competition in the global shipping market.
“Low fuel prices can be useful if the demand remains relatively strong, otherwise the possibilities are harsh and harmful,” says Smith. One of the methods of reducing costs may be to unify air and ocean shipments under one customs input, and reduce customs brokerage fees and processing that are preparing to rise sharply with the end of minimal exemptions.
Smith highlights the standardization of the market: “The 10 best companies are a large unification companies in the market of more than 2300 of shipping in the service, with the largest Fedex in the world with 700 aircraft, followed by UPS, Qatar Airways treatment, Emirates Skycargo, DHL, Korean air charges, and others.”
In this complex environment, transport companies must not only customs tariff shocks, but also to transfer demand, cost pressures, and advanced expectations for the globalized supply chain.
Since these changes that depend on customs tariffs reshape the air scene, companies, airlines and logistical service providers alike face unprecedented challenges. Joy Smith warns: “The lack of clear policy and the duration of unexpected definitions creates an unstable environment,” Joy Smith warns. “Only through adaptation, diversification and innovation, the sector can hope to overcome this storm.”
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