The watch flows on the Chinese introductory manufacturing agreement, which is scheduled to end on August 14. But time is more strict for importers who have a long list of commercial partners, as a mutual tariff – is close to allowing an area of commercial negotiations – early July 9.
So far, the United Kingdom has only reached an initial agreement with the United States. Negotiations with the European Union, South Korea and Japan remain suspended, due to the United States insisting on maintaining its tariff by 25 percent on cars.
President Donald Trump has admitted that he does not expect to finish finishing agreements with all parties in a timely manner, indicating that he may instead apply the definitions unilaterally. However, it is still unclear whether these definitions will return to the levels announced in April.
In addition to uncertainty is ambiguity during the final dates in July and August: it was not yet known whether the goods should be loaded originally through those dates – as was the case with the deadline on April 9 – or reaching the United States by that time. The latter will significantly shorten the bottom of the lower Safan window, while charging the ocean from the Far East needs to move during the next week or two weeks to arrive in time.
High demand for ocean charging
The 12 -year -old introductory stoppage period to the United States led to a sharp recovery in the demand to ship the ocean through the Pacific Ocean, after a significant decrease in size after the United States imposed 145 percent of Chinese goods in early April.
In response, transport companies have implemented the increases in public prices in the middle of the month (GRIS) ranged between $ 1,000 and $ 3000 per Feu, with a similar rise in 1 and 15 June. These measures aim to pay up to $ 8,000/Feu, where levels were seen last time during the peak of summer 2024 on the West Coast Road of Asia.
According to Freightos, the daily transpacific rates increased from Monday by about $ 1,000/FEU to the East Coast (now at $ 4,400/Feu) and $ 400/FEU to the West Coast (now $ 2800/FEU).
Transportation companies are scrambling to restore empty sailing and suspended services that were canceled during the April decline. However, many ships and containers have been republished into other commercial corridors during calm and are now out of the place. This has led to a lack of equipment in China just as reservations are captured.
The crowding and weather delays in many Chinese container centers also contribute to the high prices of containers. With the approaching date of the tariff approaching, the demand may tend towards the western coast ports, as the truck gives a shorter priority than the time to overcome the watch.
Despite the apostasy, some analysts believe that with the minimum minimum lower tariffs by 30 percent on Chinese goods in reality, prices and demand may increase – but it is unlikely to increase – before August. The current activity may represent an early start for the peak season, which may be concluded early on the usual.
Air Market Transformations
The suspension of the minimum eligibility of Chinese goods reduces the sizes of air conditions between China and the United States, especially in the legal shipping sector. As a result, a lot of shipping capacity came out of the Transpacific Market.
However, immediate prices remain high. The Freightos Air Index has reported the rates of China – the United States at $ 5.50/kg last week – fixed with the levels of early April.
Freightos also notes that this via Pacific charging capacity may now turn into other markets, which may soon affect the dynamics of amended behind the United States.
Meanwhile, Asia -Europe has not seen the oceans after a seasonal start, despite the ongoing red transfers. This contradicts last year, when the two trucks began peak season reservations early to accommodate long trips times.
Transportation companies announced June GRIS aimed to raise prices to about $ 3,200/Feu to northern Europe and $ 4,500/FEU to the Mediterranean, which led to an increase of $ 1,000/FEU. However, these numbers are still much lower than 6000 – $ 7,000/FEU registered in June 2024.
